Space Technology

By: Denis Frith
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It is common to recognize one's mortality and plan to leave a legacy for one's descendents. Often it is financial but it was sometimes wisdom in bygone times. Would not it be wise to plan to leave as big a legacy as possible for the population that will have to make do after Tityas' demise? The current population of our civilization, Tityas, exuberantly uses the benevolence of nature, natural material wealth, in an extremely wasteful fashion. This cannot continue as the natural capital becomes scarce. This behavior is through lack of understanding of the consequences of using irreplaceable natural resources such as oil, producing harmful wastes while also damaging the ecosystem. It is like a person who takes up smoking without thinking about the likelihood of getting lung cancer, mainly through lack of warnings. The systems of our civilization, Tityas, have used so much of this natural wealth that it is now becoming noticeably scarce to those prepared to think about the issue. There is justifiable concern in some quarters about what fossil fuel emissions have done to the familiar climate. Competition for a range of raw materials is heating up, partly because the supply of so many of them, such as oil, is seen by knowledgeable personnel to be in danger of declining rapidly. Specialists are warning about the problems with ocean acidification, the impact of rapid species extinction on biodiversity, de-forestation, desertification together with top soil and fertility loss. Air and water pollution is a problem in many regions. These warnings are not resulting in much action as the powerful still believe in the power of money and technology to solve these problems of the decline in natural capital, even as population and affluenza growth exacerbates them. Tityas is now a vast organism having many cities and their infrastructure growing rapidly. It consumes natural capital at a high rate although signs of disintegration are starting to emerge in some regions. Tityas is addicted to using natural capital for its operation and maintenance even as the signs of its depletion grow. Tityas is now into its senescence and its population will have to adapt to powering down as natural forces exert increasing control. The loss of convenient forms of land, sea and air transportation will vie with declining energy, food, sanitation and potable water availability for the most disruptive impact on a bewildered society. They will be wondering why money is becoming impotent for every-day living while the rich play their games. The irony is that the population of the citadels of Tityas will have the greatest problem in accepting reality. Most of them will not have appreciated how dependent they had become on the facilities provided by the wasteful use of the limited natural capital. They like the ability to fly hither and thither at will. The withdrawal symptoms will be harsh for those who not have the understanding of where society had gone wrong in misusing the benevolence from nature.

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The present situation is largely the result of the irreversible use of limited natural capital without fully taking into account the consequences. Royalties paid for the right to extract natural resources tends to share the financial benefits of using these components of natural capital with the population, as its provides the government with money that can be used for necessary infrastructure. In some cases, such as with the Norwegian government, some of the royalties from their oil and gas resources have been placed in a Futures Fund so that coming generations can share in the financial benefits for what they may be worth then! However, there has been no accounting for many components of the natural capital. The flushing of soil nutrients down sewerage systems into the ocean is just one example. There are some moves to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions in an attempt to slow down climate change but nothing is being done about the associated acidification of the oceans with its deleterious impact on the marine food chain. The major factor in this exuberant use of natural capital has been the employment in numerous systems of the concentrated energy from the fossil fuels to power the construction, operation and maintenance of the vast, complex organism, Tityas. The flow of money has driven the decision process while the fetish about economic growth has provided the stimulus even during the current global financial chaos. The major factor in this delusion is the use of GDP. It represents only one side of the ledger. It does not account for the divestment of the many components of irreplaceable natural capital.

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It helps to provide understanding of what has happened to use a simple analogy, a tank with a tap at the bottom. It was nearly full of water (natural capital) a century of so ago before the tap was turned on. The gushing flow enabled the build up of Tityas and the easy life style of many of its human inhabitants. The tap was gradually opened further to speed up the flow in pursuit of a higher material standard of living. However, the flow is now slowing down as the level gets low and it will become a trickle in the not too distant future, even though the leaders of our society never think about that coming reality. They are aware of their mortality but they do no planning for how Tityas will cope as its life support drops to a trickle.

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That is what has happened to the abode of the vast population. That is only part of the scenario. Financial investment has been a major factor in the development of Tityas. The divestment of natural capital has not. No doubt many specialists are aware of the limited amounts of a wide range of raw materials that can possibly be extracted but these limits have not played a major part in the decisions made about exploiting them. There is little doubt that the belief in the inevitability of economic growth due to interest rates has had a major influence on what even technologists have decided. How could one explain to an extraterrestrial the decision of Boeing to make many Dreamliners to fly for the next thirty or forty years when it is certain the aviation fuel based on oil will become in very short supply and no credible alternative has yet been proven? The fact the airlines have placed many orders just increases the suspicion that many of the decisions made by industry and governments have been made with very little consideration of physical reality and long-term consequences. The decisions have been made by the bean counters. They do not think in terms of the emptying tank and how close the bottom is. After all, it is extremely doubtful whether any serious thought is being given to the future operation and maintenance of Washington, Moscow, Los Angeles, Canberra and numerous other cities of Tityas even though that will be a major problem before the end of this century. Natural capital will be too scarce then to meet the demand to do this work. It is quite likely that the powerful will only belatedly respond to these crises when they can no longer be ignored. The current response to the global financial crisis indicates the priorities of the decision makers. They are blinded by dollar signs. Knowledgeable people have issued warnings about peak oil, climate change and numerous other natural problems for many decades without anything being done. The current situation is akin to the smoker who has not accepted the possibility of this habit leading to lung cancer but having the view that if this causative relation should become more proven, then there will be good reason to cut back!

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The evidence is available for those prepared to look and think through the arguments about the physical reality. Few will do that because they believe in the power of money and technology to solve emerging problems. But the fact remains that the demise of Tityas is inevitable because the tank will be empty. Money can do nothing about such problems as the draw down of fossil water, the devastation of old growth forests, the decline in availability of phosphorus and countless other predicaments due to the role of natural forces. Technology can do little about many of these problems. It will provide some worthwhile sources of energy with the installation of wind farms and the like but at a cost for the temporary fix. Permaculture will help food production as the artificial fertilizers run out. There are many ways that smart people can reduce the wasteful use of natural capital, including turning away from affluenza and getting back to doing useful things themselves. The quality of living can improve even as the material standard declines and some of the infrastructure disintegrates. A reversion to dependence on natural income to meet some of the basic needs of people will be necessary. The hydrological cycle will continue to provide fresh water. Hopefully it will be used more sensibly in the future. The other natural cycles will ensure refreshment of many resources. Natural replenishment of bio diversity will also help. This beneficial process will be assisted by ecological succession restoring some regions. However, the disintegration of most of the systems of Tityas cannot be prevented. People are bound to be bewildered as systems that have largely determined their way of life disappear. For example, very few would expect TVs and the other electronics that have revolutionized work, education, entertainment and recreation in recent decades to become part of history as many of the minerals indispensable to their manufacture run out. Society has become entranced with the ability of entrepreneurs to bring out new gadgets. They do not understand that natural forces always determine what is possible with what is left of natural material resources. No one can create elements or energy or water or manage to reverse processes, despite the many claims to the contrary over the centuries. Unraveling DNA has been commonly regarded as a major scientific advance when all it has been is gaining understanding of an information processing system that has been operating in a multitude of organisms for millions of years – without our interference.

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There is, however, the possibility of coming generations leaving a wonderful legacy to those few people who inhabit the post-Tityas eco system. The population will not be large and they will have to make do with the replenishing resources that nature has provided for eons, although what will be available in the future will be diminished to some extent and many of them will only recover at an evolutionary pace. There will be no useful legacy unless there is widespread understanding of what civilization has done wrong in stealing natural wealth to establish the temporary material wealth of Tityas. That consumption is an unsustainable process so it would be foolish to devote intellectual energy on vain attempts to maintain business as usual. No doubt, money flow will continue to govern the decisions made just as energy flow will govern what subsequently happens to the material, regardless of the merit of the decision. People, nevertheless, have the potential to make the wise decisions that will provide a legacy they can be proud of. Many aspects of our culture are worth preserving. Realization of that potential is, however, questionable. There are, as yet, few signs of awakening to reality.

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It is clear that a beneficial legacy will be left to post-Tityas generations only if society shifts to a new paradigm in the near future. It would require a remarkable cultural change, especially amongst those have the power to significantly influence events. The current signs of a very small portion of the populace waking up to the reality of what is happening do not suggest the rapid emergence of an Earthly Revolution. There is no doubt that the power of money will continue to be a major factor but the first requirement is widespread understanding that natural forces always determine what can happen. They determine the potential. Technology can make use of some of these natural forces to provide goods and services useful, or otherwise, to society and in the operation of Tityas. Money, of course, has a big impact on the decisions. But the bottom line is that all these operations irreversibly use up natural wealth. This unsustainable process makes Tityas' demise inevitable. Those who understand that can then make decisions that will slow down the rate of using components of the natural wealth while possibly improving what it is used for. Academia would need to play a central role in promoting that understanding by focusing on tangible operations rather than the intangible arts of selling stuff and making money. Governments could contribute to easing the powering down while helping society to provide a worthwhile legacy by instituting policies that support education of this reality while fostering frugality. Businesses could still be competitive and profitable by making the most effective use of natural capital but that would be dependent on the goods and services they provide being worthwhile in a changing society. The wealthy in society could use their leverage to provide the flow of money needed for these worthwhile operations. Employment could adjust to better meet needs rather than wants. These measures will help in the adjustment of society but have little influence on the senescence of the materialistic organism, Tityas.

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What then is the prognosis? There is, as usual, appreciable uncertainty. There is the small probability of a natural catastrophic event that wipes out much of the population and does irrepayable damage to many of the systems of Tityas. Such an event would speed up the demise of that organism. But what of the legacy? It is quite clear that the post-Tityas society will have to make do primarily on the limited natural income. Society will be degraded unless a profound Earthly Revolution takes place in the near future. Even if it does, there is a lot of the current culture that will disappear. That Revolution is most unlikely as most of the requirements noted above are unlikely to be met. The money paradigm is too well established in the real economy despite the gross money games played in the stock and forex markets.

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Of course, many of those who read this essay will think it is rubbish. They will probably be amongst the well off in the developed and developing countries. They know they have a higher material standard of living that previous generations and they can think of no reason why this progress cannot continue. They think of no reason why it cannot continue because they do not think! They should think about the fact that about half the irreplaceable oil resource has been destroyed in the past century. Then think about how much will be left at the end of this century. They can think about what the wastes produced by meeting the needs and wants of society have irreversibly done to the life support system. That should then put them in a thinking mood! That will be the time to re-read this essay and think through the arguments presented. That is the way to join the smart set who can strive to contribute to a sound legacy by thinking about what can wisely be done with what is left of the depleted natural wealth. The young can lead the challenge to redress as much as possible the harm that their elders did through not understanding the dependence on nature.