In recent years, international gold prices higher year by year, from 2001 to 260 U.S. dollars / ounce and gradually increased to the current 867 U.S. dollars / ounce, which on March 14 arrived in 1032 U.S. dollars once the highest / ounce, despite the recent apparent decline, but did not to change the original ascending channel.
As the international price of gold continued higher, the domestic investment boom began to set off a gold. At the same time, the scale of China's gold industry chain is gradually being bigger and stronger. It is predicted that China's gold production in 2008 will exceed 300 tons, in one fell swoop beyond South Africa became the world's largest gold producer, while China's gold consumption by leaps and bounds, is also beyond the United States, second only to India's second-largest gold jewelry consumer market . But the sell very well behind China's gold investment market is still in its infancy, lack of investment in gold has become China's gateway to the world powers "short board."
- Gold production and sales almost equal to the highest in the world
China's gold resources have been writing a new chapter of history. Following the 2006 Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and Sichuan and other areas of proven reserves of more than 650 tonnes of gold, after 2007 there has been yet discovered the five major gold deposits: Gangdise xiongcun copper and gold mine, Dachang gold mine in Qinghai, Gansu and Provincial Gannan areas Yangshan gold mine in Laizhou City, Shandong Province, Jisho gold, gold mine in Hainan hold Lun. Among them, Yangshan gold mine in Gansu Province amounted to 308 tons of gold resources, China has not adapted more than 200 tons of super-large gold deposits in the history of independent, but also for the history of China's gold adds a brilliant stroke.
At present, China mainly rock gold mine gold resources mainly associated gold is also a larger proportion of total; deposit with a small majority, while large, very large deposits less; In addition, as more complex mining conditions are available for open-pit mining of ore deposits are few. In addition, the proportion of refractory gold resources are also larger. According to the institutional analysis predicts that the amount of China's current gold resources in the 1.5-2 million tons, 4634 tons to maintain gold reserves, of which 2786 tons of rock gold, alluvial gold 593 tons, 1255 tons of associated gold, proven reserves ranked seventh in the world .
In recent years, the overall technological level of China's gold industry has improved significantly. For example the use of existing technology has completely Xuanye can handle formerly called refractory gold, and can achieve a higher recovery rate. In addition, our low-grade ore processing technology has also been a great breakthrough. At present, China already has from the exploration, mining, processing to the smelting of gold as one of the specialized industrial chain, some of them have reached the international advanced level.
The past 30 years, China has built more than the size of the focus of gold mining 330, Japan and the scale of mining about 11 million tons of ore. In 2007, China's gold output reached 270.491 tons, an increase of 12.67%. The South African gold output was 272 tons, China has overtaken the U.S. as second only to South Africa's second largest producer of gold. 2008 gold production from January to April, compared with a year earlier increase of about 5% in the second half there will be further growth. Thus, in 2008 China will surpass South Africa as the world's largest gold producer.
In 2007, China's gold consumption to show strong growth momentum, including China, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, the annual sales volume of China's gold hit a record high, reaching 363.3 tons, up 23%. In mainland China, demand for gold reached 326.1 tons, 26% higher than in 2006. Gold jewelry demand for gold jewelry market in China for 10 years, but the first time 300 tons, up 302.2 tons, become much more than the United States, second only to India's second-largest gold jewelry market. 2007 Shanghai Gold Exchange, the accumulated turnover of 1828.13 tons of gold, an increase of 46.3%, also reached a record high since the establishment of exchange.
- China's gold industry, began to highlight the advantages of
In recent years, China's gold production technology continues to improve, the enterprise's strength is also growing, gold, gold industrial system also injected new vitality companies, which are to some extent, the promotion of gold production. Meanwhile, in recent years, newly discovered gold mine of resources, but also for China to become a gold-producing power has provided a guarantee.
With the increase in gold mining smelting technology and domestic exploration capabilities, gold production growth trend is inevitable. In this regard, vice president of China Gold Association, gold investment analysts Qualifications, said Hou Huimin, director of the Committee of Experts in 1995, the first time, China's gold production reached 100 tons, China with 13 years in 2008, gold production is expected to achieve growth in doubled, reaching 300 tons level.
While China and Australia, Peru, Indonesia and some other countries, gold production has increased, but at the same time, South Africa, the United States and other gold-producing country's gold production was declining. In addition, because gold mining industry, long investment cycle, mining costs are high, from the historical data, the number of the world's gold mining can not be increased rapidly. Therefore, the next few years, the world's gold production will not change much, will still show a relatively stable situation. And may show a slight downward trend, while demand for gold has continued to increase, the pattern of short supply of gold is basically will not change. Therefore, gold prices remain high running will be the main features of the future market.
In accordance with the current pace of China's economic development, the gold market is very wide space for future growth. As people's living standards, China's gold jewelry market potential will also be growing. Particularly in the next period, in accordance with macroeconomic forecasting: born in the eighties the population will be around 2007 to 2012 into the age of marriage. Therefore, the wedding is undoubtedly the gold jewelry market, one of consumption growth.
At present, the group of large gold-oriented and orderly competition, cooperation and development of the new pattern is emerging, industry concentration continues to increase. Golden State support to further enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and self-development capacity to support large dominant enterprises to further enhance the competitiveness and self-development capacity to support large dominant enterprises become stronger and bigger, encourage enterprises to play a large gold capital, technology and talent advantages, through mergers and acquisitions , restructuring and joint development, enhance the overall competitiveness of the gold industry. At the same time to actively support and encourage qualified enterprises to develop overseas gold mineral resources.
- The main factors constraining the domestic gold investment
And China's gold production, sales surge is not directly proportional to the current investment in China's gold market has just started, the scale is relatively small, with the true gold standard of far cry from the big powers.
According to statistics, in mid-November 2007, the British Bullion Market Association (LBMA) for gold trading accounted for 13.8% of the UK GDP, the U.S. accounted for the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold trade to the U.S. GDP, 7.26%, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold trading accounted for the proportion of China's GDP is only 0.93%.
As part of the portfolio, gold investment and risk diversification can be achieved to avoid the purpose. In addition, under the conditions of China's trade surplus remained high, through the promotion of personal physical gold investment not only can have a "hidden gold to the people", but will also promote gold imports, strengthening national capacity to withstand the financial crisis, the objective can ease huge foreign exchange reserve pressure.
Market participants shared the view that the current domestic gold investment market is not hot as expected, especially since the current round of global gold bull market, the domestic market, the trend has been weaker than the international market, when the international gold price upside, the domestic gold prices rose lag situation; and when the international price of gold down, the domestic gold price adjustment is even greater. Gold as Chinese investors have been the most familiar and favorite investment products, currently in the country, in-kind gold as a "pressure Xiangdi" in a steady increase in investment hedge against inflation hedge, but the volume of investment in physical gold, after all, is very limited. China's big gold investment market, the key is to do big gold financial investment market. Beyond the physical gold and other gold investment products continued to show lack of popularity is small, in particular, investment in gold futures and other important species, with the transaction price fell, trading volume has contracted posture.
Gold for China's investment in such goods, the current investment market in the country to develop fast, there are four main reasons: first, a faster appreciation of yuan into the channel, a direct dilution of the gold investment rate of return. Correlation with gold prices still have the greatest movements in currency exchange rates, the price of gold round the world "diving" the main reason the U.S. dollar index rebounded.
At the same time, the recent yuan broken "7", also contributed to the weakness of domestic price of gold. Unless the international price of gold rose above the rate of yuan appreciation, investors have greater profit margins. Therefore, the expected appreciation of the renminbi, the more investors started to pay attention to the exchange rate risk.
Second, our country experienced a long era of the gold price plans at present, although the market has entered the channel, but because of the small size of the market to participate in financing of small and other reasons, China's gold market in the world is also a lack of "pricing power", so the domestic market trends only London, New York market in miniature, can not form the real "China price" and "China market."
Third, China's gold futures listed on the first day of high priced, there is almost daily limit, significantly higher than the same day international gold prices, deviated from the actual investment value. This is also involved in gold futures a burden on investors, resulting in a lot of investors just entering the market a large number of losses. Some ways, this is the investment is not rational, direct the performance of an immature market. Fourth, the domestic gold investment promotion and education is not enough, many investors are not familiar with the trading rules hastily approaching the event of a loss will leave the emotions generated is not conducive to fostering a long-term stable growth market.
- Bigger gold investment market, right time
Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shen Long-rong, chairman pointed out that, as at the end of 2007, the domestic balance of household savings more than 17 trillion yuan, a large number of bank deposit balance of personal investment offers great potential for gold. Meanwhile, the current volatile stock market Quotes, real estate market, high prices, a higher risk of the futures market, while the value of the stability of gold, with good preservation role, but also a good tool to fight inflation, so gold has joined stock , bonds, funds available to ordinary people after the choice of another important investment channels.
At present, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has attracted more than 25 million individual investors to participate in gold, individual gold trading volume of 42.05 tons. The future will be a growing huge market. In addition, opening early this year, China's gold futures products will also be perfecting an important step in China's gold market, but because of the primary trading opened early varieties of high prices, resulting in the loss to investors, slightly less popular.
The sector say that the future for China to compete for the world gold price the right to speak, the market to really out of the "China price", we must rely on the "troika" common lead. Shanghai Gold Exchange in charge of the future spot gold and gold forwards, in charge of the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures, gold ETF in charge of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and other financial innovations, which will enable China to form a complete layout of the gold market system. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange constitutes the "troika" of their roles, complement each other to jointly build China's gold market relies on a large gold production and consumption base, the venue and the balanced development of the OTC market, the world gold market, "third pole."
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